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What are Forecasting
Forecasting deals with anticipation of the future development of an organization, society, economy, branch, environment etc. Its goal is to get an idea about future situation, which is based on rational forecasting methods.

“Never make forecasts, especially about the future.”

Niels Bohr

Forecasting deals with anticipation of the future development of an organization, society, economy, branch, environment etc. Its goal is to get an idea about future situation, which is based on rational forecasting methods. Obtained predictions are important for strategic management, risk management and planning.

Forecasting use various forecasting methods and techniques that are broken down into the following groups:

  • Five Forces Analysis
  • Strategic methods and techniques

    • Statistical trends forecasting methods
    • Time series

      • ARIMA models, SARIMA models, SAR models, SMA models, SARMA models
      • Box-Jenkins methods
      • Random walk models
      • Moving averages models (MA)
      • Autoregressive models (AR)
      • Mixed processes (ARMA)
    • Regression models, Regression analysis
    • Structural analysis
    • Paired and multiple correlation
    • Special methods (e.g. Envelope curves,Eexponential smoothing etc.)
  • Expert and qualitative forecasting method
    • Delphi method
    • Trend Impact Analysis (TIA)
    • Brainstorming
    • Brainwriting
    • Evaluation of expert estimates
    • Extrapolation
  • Participatory methods
  • Methods based on scenario

Related terms and methods:

Related management field:

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Last update: 23.10.2015

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